每日信息简报｜2026 年 08 月 20 日

DAILY BRIEFING · 2026.08.20

把技术与商业叙事拉回证据、成本与边界

今天从 AI 基建、网络安全到资本市场与公共议题，关注的不是单个标题，而是主张的证据、适用范围与后续影响。

今日要点

Offering Zero Data Retention for frontier models

报道摘要：OpenAI reaffirms Zero Data Retention for eligible API customers and previews Private Safety Processing for advanced AI safety without compromising data privacy.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：OpenAI，发布于 2026-08-19。

Replit expands access to software creation with GPT-5.6 Luna

报道摘要：Replit introduces Free Mode, powered by GPT-5.6 Luna, so anyone can turn ideas into working software without worrying about token costs.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：OpenAI，发布于 2026-08-19。

ChatGPT Ads expands across Europe

报道摘要：ChatGPT Ads is expanding to 31 European markets. Learn how advertisers can reach people as they explore, compare options, and make decisions.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：OpenAI，发布于 2026-08-18。

AI 与科技

Stripe didn’t really buy OpenRouter because of the ‘singularity’

报道摘要：What does a payments giant want with a startup that routes prompts between different AI models? Stripe says it’s because of "the singularity" but it’s really for a far more real and powerful reason.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：TechCrunch AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

OpenAI seeks to one-up Anthropic with new customer privacy protections

报道摘要：A competition is developing between OpenAI and Anthropic over who can provide the best privacy protections for enterprise customer data.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：TechCrunch AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

Cognition CEO denies report that SpaceX tried to acquire the startup

报道摘要：SpaceX was reportedly in talks to buy AI coding startup Cognition. SpaceX has already acquired Cursor as it races to catch up to rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic in enterprise AI.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：TechCrunch AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

值得深读

Google Gemini is getting a dedicated student hub

报道摘要：As we’re gearing up for back-to-school season, Google is rolling out a new dedicated student hub in Gemini. It’s a one-stop repository for collecting research in a study notebook, creating flashcards, taking practice quizzes, and more. Google is also enhancing。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：The Verge AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

OpenAI hit the brakes. Now what?

报道摘要：With a looming IPO, intense competition from Anthropic, and Chinese and open-weight rivals nipping at its heels, OpenAI has plenty of reasons to move fast. Instead, it hit the brakes. On Tuesday, the company said it had slowed the pace of some AI development w。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：The Verge AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

Meta AI is getting a Mac app

报道摘要：Meta is launching a new Mac app dedicated to its AI chatbot. In an announcement on Wednesday, Meta says you can share your window with its AI chatbot, which can provide suggestions, answer questions, or create content based on what’s on your screen. Meta AI on。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：The Verge AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

Inside the Data Center Capital of the World

报道摘要：Cecilia Kang, who covers technology and regulatory policy for The New York Times, traveled to the “data center capital of the world” to see how the A.I. boom is affecting Loudoun County, Va.。 这条线索的价值在于把标题中的主张与其证据、适用范围和后续影响分开看。来源：纽约时报 AI，发布于 2026-08-19。

快速浏览

纽约时报 AI · 2026-08-19Stripe Buys A.I. Start-Up OpenRouter for $7.5 Billion：The deal is significant for the artificial intelligence industry, uniting Stripe’s payments business with OpenRouter’s helping businesses direct their spending on A.I. models.↗ 纽约时报 AI · 2026-08-19More Fed Officials Lost Patience About Elevated Inflation at Latest Meeting：Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July gathering showed broadening support for higher borrowing costs to stamp out lingering price pressures.↗ Hacker News 精选 · 2026-08-19Go 1.27：Article URL: Comments URL: Points: 423 # Comments: 102↗ Hacker News 精选 · 2026-08-19OpenRouter is joining Stripe：Previously: Stripe will reportedly acquire OpenRouter for $7B+ Comments URL: Points: 603 # Comments: 321↗ Hacker News 精选 · 2026-08-19Civic Hygiene – avoid building technologies that could be used by a police state (2013)：Article URL: Comments URL: Points: 403 # Comments: 292↗ BBC · 2026-08-20Trump threatens 'tremendous economic consequences' on any country helping Iran：It comes after a 60-day ceasefire expired on Monday, with no sign of a diplomatic or military off-ramp to the conflict.↗ BBC · 2026-08-20Israel opens up bids for highly-sensitive West Bank settlement project：The UK's foreign secretary condemned the move as "an unacceptable and destructive act".↗ BBC · 2026-08-20Australia 'outraged' after Israeli decision not to prosecute over killing of aid worker in Gaza：Australia's foreign minister says she will summon the Israeli ambassador over 'insulting' Zomi Frankcom decision.↗

@Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-20 01:06:33 UTC · 原创原帖：Bringing the aluminum tariff on Canada down to 25% -- and not limiting imports with a quota -- is a good first step. I would go further and drop the tariff, as it has raised prices in the US without improving US economic security or incentivizing significant US production 1/↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-20 01:03:23 UTC · 引用原帖：Sciences Po alumni are currently rather prominent in economics/ trade circles in the US it seems (Mr. Greer and I both have masters from Sciences Po Paris; alas, I didn't keep up my French as well as Mr. Greer ... )↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-20 00:13:31 UTC · 原创原帖：Taiwanese media reports that customers have already begun preliminary discussions with Winbond—a niche/legacy memory maker—over its 2029 and 2030 capacity. Yes, 2029. They’re already negotiating for 2029 supply volumes lol.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-20 00:06:01 UTC · 原创原帖：One thing I’ve learned: simply by increasing—or even maintaining—its current TSMC capacity allocation, Intel can prevent AMD from securing more server CPU capacity at TSMC and ramping its CPU shipments. More people than I expected seem optimistic about AMD’s TSMC capacity allocation. I think the estimates may be somewhat overstated.↗ @thsottiaux · 请求账号 @thsottiaux · 2026-08-19 20:26:19 UTC · 引用原帖：Today we’re previewing Private Safety Processing, designed to let us keep offering Zero Data Retention while improving our safeguards. Even when benefiting from frontier intelligence, customers shouldn’t have to give up control of sensitive data. For ZDR deployments, content stays on infrastructure the customer controls. Automated systems look for patterns across related interactions and return limited safety signals, without exposing the underlying prompts or responses to OpenAI employees (even me!). We’re also developing an OpenAI-hosted option encrypted with customer-controlled keys. We’re testing this with early customers now and plan to begin rolling it out in September.↗ @sama · 请求账号 @sama · 2026-08-19 19:48:23 UTC · 原创原帖：we support business privacy!↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-08-19 19:02:23 UTC · 引用原帖：Well, that was a let down. I do hope Warsh's experiment goes well, but I am concerned.↗ @thsottiaux · 请求账号 @thsottiaux · 2026-08-19 16:39:35 UTC · 原创原帖：It has not been used yet, but would you look at that. Codex for scale.↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-08-19 15:49:36 UTC · 原创原帖：$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used ​with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage ​and move information ⁠across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion ​in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 15:44:16 UTC · 原创原帖：Crude #oil stockpiles (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 4.4M barrels to 428.8M barrels for week ending Aug. 14, marking a third consecutive increase and pushing inventories to their highest level since May↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-08-19 14:49:53 UTC · 原创原帖：Jawohl. (via Adam Tooze)↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 12:33:15 UTC · 原创原帖：$MRVL↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 12:17:05 UTC · 原创原帖：Neural9 chart/table updated thru yesterday’s close↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-08-19 12:02:43 UTC · 原创原帖：Who else is excited for the FOMC minutes today? (I honestly can't believe this is my new fav part of the Fed's comms flow.)↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 11:58:28 UTC · 引用原帖：This is a worthwhile read. If I may add one point, products manufactured in the United States now command a premium. AAOI has said that U.S.-made optical modules carry a premium, and U.S. hyperscalers will also be willing to pay a premium for Micron’s U.S.-made DRAM. Korean memory companies need to respond by building memory fabs in the United States—and that is exactly what they are doing. Just look at how SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won has repeatedly discussed building a front-end memory fab in the U.S. U.S.-made semiconductors will command a premium because their price will reflect the value of a stable and assured supply.↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:07:17 UTC · 原创原帖：Domestic travel remains sky high compared to 2025, with average round-trip economy ticket costing nearly $100 more in 2026 @DataArbor↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:06:47 UTC · 原创原帖：On a year/year basis, July import prices (blue) rose by +5.9% vs. +6.7% prior; export prices (orange) +8.2% vs. +10.0% prior↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:06:21 UTC · 原创原帖：Pending home sales declined in all four regions in July, led by a 4.7% m/m drop in the West and a 2.2% m/m decline in the South, the nation’s largest home-selling region↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:05:51 UTC · 原创原帖：Pending home sales fell 2.5% y/y in July and moved into negative territory for first time since January↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:05:27 UTC · 原创原帖：According to an August @LinkedIn study, # of AI job postings has roughly doubled in recent years … GenZ accounts for more than two-thirds of forward deployed and AI engineer hires, while senior management roles tend to be held primarily by Millennials↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:04:25 UTC · 原创原帖：Expectations for next six months grew more pessimistic in August, as both business activity and business climate components of @NewYorkFed Services PMI posted double-digit declines↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-08-19 11:00:54 UTC · 原创原帖：Bloomberg: "The film’s unlikely success has started to spill into the stock market, with investors piling into companies whose names contain the Chinese character for cow." My favorite aspect of the Chinese stock market: homonym alpha.↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 11:00:33 UTC · 原创原帖：Looking forward to joining @FerroTV and @annmarie on @bsurveillance @BloombergTV this morning around 8am ET↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 10:53:46 UTC · 原创原帖：Sectors/indexes yesterday and MTD/YTD↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 10:53:26 UTC · 原创原帖：Baskets’ performance↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 10:52:15 UTC · 原创原帖：Sectors’ percentage of stocks trading at 4w and 52w highs↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-08-19 10:51:52 UTC · 原创原帖：SCMP: "China’s youth jobless rate climbed to 17.9% in July, prompting Beijing to step up employment support. The youth jobless rate rose 3 percentage points from 14.9% in June – the last of three straight months of contraction."↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 10:48:36 UTC · 原创原帖：Index drawdowns and % outperforming↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-19 10:48:05 UTC · 原创原帖：MA breadth charts↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 10:11:28 UTC · 原创原帖：Korean media report that Samsung plans to increase the number of floors at its new fab under construction in Pyeongtaek from the originally planned two to three. More specifically, the fabs being redesigned as three-story facilities are Pyeongtaek P5 Plants 1 and 2, which together will constitute the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturing facility at a single site. Construction first began in 2022, with final completion targeted for 2030. At peak construction, the site has employed as many as 50,000 workers. Up through P4, which recently began operations at Samsung Electronics’ Pyeongtaek campus, each building employed a double-fab configuration with four cleanrooms. If the revised plan is approved, however, P5 will adopt a triple-fab configuration accommodating up to six cleanrooms. With the number of cleanrooms increasing by 50%, production capacity is also expected to rise by at least 50%. Future semiconductor fabs to be built by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the national and general industrial complexes planned for Yongin are also expected to adopt this triple-fab configuration.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 09:02:08 UTC · 原创原帖：Reuters: Samsung is raising prices for its advanced foundry nodes. - Chinese customers are accepting the largest price increases. - Prices for SF4 customers in China and the U.S. have risen 10–15% month over month, while prices for customers in Taiwan—home to TSMC’s headquarters—have increased 5–10%. - Prices for wafers produced using the 5-nanometer SF5 process have risen 10–15%, while prices for wafers made with the older 8-nanometer technology have increased by nearly 10%. - Google is also in talks with Samsung to produce chips using SF4.↗ @nft_hu · 请求账号 @nft_hu · 2026-08-19 07:57:05 UTC · 引用原帖：终于来了！价值286亿的回购！↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-08-19 07:11:47 UTC · 原创原帖：We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 07:00:33 UTC · 原创原帖：SK hynix to Accelerate KRW 40 Trillion Share Buyback and Cancellation; Raises Shareholder Return Target to “At Least 50% of FCF” ▶️ Share Buyback and Cancellation - On August 19, the board approved the repurchase and cancellation of KRW 40 trillion worth of treasury shares. - Based on the previous day’s closing price of KRW 1,662,000 per share, the company plans to acquire approximately 24.07 million shares, equivalent to around 3.3% of total shares outstanding. - The repurchase will begin on August 20 and continue for approximately three months, after which all acquired shares will be cancelled. - This will be the largest share cancellation ever undertaken by a Korean-listed company. ▶️ Rationale Behind the Decision - The company believes its current share price does not adequately reflect its intrinsic value, considering its business competitiveness, cash-generating capacity, and medium- to long-term growth prospects. - SK hynix’s net cash position reached approximately KRW 69 trillion as of the end of the second quarter, reflecting a significant improvement in cash generation. ▶️ Accelerated Implementation of Shareholder Return Policy - The company is accelerating the implementation of its existing policy to return up to 50% of cumulative free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027. It also plans to raise its shareholder return target from “up to 50% of cumulative FCF” to “at least 50%.” - With progress toward its financial soundness targets remaining on track, the company intends to continue shareholder returns while maintaining a stable financial structure. ▶️ Next Steps - SK hynix plans to combine share buybacks and cancellations with cash dividends, while also considering measures to expand dividends, including higher fixed dividends and special dividends. - The specific size and structure of additional shareholder returns will be determined by the board and announced alongside the company’s third-quarter earnings results. $SKHY↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-08-19 05:09:00 UTC · 引用原帖：The story told in this graph is important. If you set a GDP growth target and you cannot get consumption to grow faster than the target, then you also cannot allow investment to grow more slowly than the target except to the extent that a rising trade surplus takes up the slack. By the late 2010s China was already worried about excess manufacturing capacity and the private sector was cutting back on manufacturing investment. But the collapse in property investment after 2021 changed all of that. In order to keep overall investment from slowing, the authorities forced a massive increase in manufacturing investment whose purpose was not to satisfy unmet demand but rather to balance the decline in property investment. The consequence shouldn't have been nearly as surprising as it was for many: excess manufacturing capacity exploded into the problem of involution. But as involution forces down the growth rate of manufacturing investment, even as the growth rate of consumption continues to lag, this leaves China with three possible outcomes: 1. Miss the GDP growth target, which is what has been happening in recent momths, but this is probably politically unacceptable. 2. Increase non-manufacturing investment, although with property investment still declining, this basically means more infrastructure investment. I expect this will happen in the second half of 2026, but given that China already so much excess capacity in infrastructure, it isn't east to find investment projects that aren't value-destroying in the aggregate. As one of my academic friends said jokingly last week, thank god for the terrible rainstorms. 3. Run ever larger trade surpluses. The arithmetic is pretty easy to set out. China must get investment growth to slow sharply, perhaps even to go negative, if it has any hope of reining in debt, but there are only two ways this can happens. One way is with a surge in consumption growth that balances the slowdown in investment growth by enough to meet its long-term 4% growth target, but this seems unlikely, at best. The other way is without a surge in consumption, which means allowing GDP growth to drop. Until then, we can think of the growing trade surplus as effectively a residual consequence of the attempt to rein in debt (i.e. non-productive investment) without reducing GDP growth.↗ @thsottiaux · 请求账号 @thsottiaux · 2026-08-19 05:03:48 UTC · 原创原帖：I was gifted a very fancy new reset button today↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-08-19 02:51:57 UTC · 原创原帖：Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.↗ @thsottiaux · 请求账号 @thsottiaux · 2026-08-19 01:47:18 UTC · 原创原帖：Hi! Recapping some changes we have rolled out over the last couple of weeks that have further reduced the risk associated to potentially destructive actions being performed by Codex during its work. A few weeks ago, we started investigating a small number of reports where GPT-5.6 in Codex took destructive actions outside what the user asked for. The most serious pattern we found was a command meant to clean up temporary work that could instead delete the user files. This should obviously not happen. Here’s what we found: - Codex sometimes creates temporary folders while working and cleans them up afterward. In rare cases, GPT-5.6 got that cleanup wrong. One pattern involved reusing a system environment variable like $HOME for temporary work. A malformed cleanup command could then point at the actual home directory instead of the temporary folder. - There were cases where the model tried to delete or overwrite a temporary path without checking what was already there. We’ve added protections at several layers: - Codex is now explicitly instructed to check deletion targets before acting, create fresh temporary directories, avoid repurposing system environment variables, prefer recoverable actions, and stop when the scope is unclear. - We strengthened the execution checks that identify high-risk deletion commands and escalate them for review. If a command is rejected, the model is directed to take a safer approach. - We made Full access harder to enable accidentally, added clearer warnings, and further restricted especially risky permission combinations. - We updated Auto-review to better identify destructive actions. - We built targeted evaluations that replay the failures we observed. We’re also adding reinforcement-learning tasks and graders focused on these risks, and filtering destructive actions from training data. In those replay evaluations, the changes substantially reduced the behavior while preserving Codex’s ability to complete normal coding work. Two things to do on your end: - Keep the Codex app up to date. We are always improving safety, performance and many other things. - Use one of the sandbox modes: "Ask for approval" or "Approve for me". Only use Full access for environments you trust and can recover. Thanks and happy Codexing out there!↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-08-19 01:46:52 UTC · 原创原帖：#RIP Hayden, bring it on.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-08-19 01:42:27 UTC · 原创原帖：Taiwanese media reported that the PCB industry has continued to raise prices as supplies of raw materials such as CCL and prepreg (PP) tighten and costs increase. PCB makers have already raised quoted prices by approximately 5–30% this year, with the benefits of those increases gradually being reflected from the third quarter onward. With upstream material prices remaining elevated, PCB manufacturers are preparing further price increases in the second half through dynamic pricing adjustments to mitigate the erosion of gross margins caused by rising raw material costs. The main driver of PCB price increases is the broad-based rise in upstream material prices. Major CCL manufacturers raised product prices by approximately 20–30% in the first half of this year, and quarter-by-quarter pricing pressure is expected to persist from the second half through 2027. Supplies of high-end electronic-grade glass fiber fabric are also tight. The supply-demand shortfall for second-generation Low Dk fabric is estimated to exceed 60%, while the shortage of T-Glass continues to widen. Prices of high-end glass fiber fabric could continue rising through the first half of 2027. Meanwhile, the price-increase trend is also continuing in the IC substrate market in the second half. As demand for high-performance computing applications such as AI GPUs and ASICs grows—and supplies of advanced materials, including T-Glass, remain tight—substrate manufacturers are continuing to adjust prices on a rolling basis. Quoted prices are reportedly considered to have room for double-digit increases in each of the third and fourth quarters.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 22:39:54 UTC · 引用原帖：Data on European holding of U.S. bonds needs to be interpreted carefully. The EU (and the UK) are home to many large custodians, who hold bonds on behalf of investors in Asia and the Middle East (plus, famously, Russia's frozen reserves)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 22:30:47 UTC · 引用原帖：Fundamentally, the MoF (Japan) did all the real intervention. The U.S action was financially insignificant, but generated a lot headlines. So you could say the U.S. basically did the PR↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-18 19:43:54 UTC · 原创原帖：A great report from my brilliant colleagues on a subject always top of mind for investors:↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-18 19:37:37 UTC · 原创原帖：Another great read from @MikeTownsendCS:↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-18 19:36:35 UTC · 原创原帖：This @VisualCap graphic ranks 15 most populous cities worldwide from 1950 to 2100 using population estimates from European Commission’s JRC via @OurWorldInData; city boundaries were consistently defined based on satellite imagery and population data↗ @sama · 请求账号 @sama · 2026-08-18 18:53:34 UTC · 原创原帖：We have paused some frontier RL training to ensure that we can meet the appropriate alignment, security and monitoring standards for the new level of capabilities in front of us. Model progress is now extremely rapid, and we always said we would take action if we felt that model capabilities were outstripping the pace of safety and alignment. We care very deeply about AI safety. We believe the entire field will have to coordinate on shared safety standards, but will act unilaterally in the meantime. We expect confidence in safety to increasingly set the pace of AI progress. We are optimistic about the alignment work we are doing, and we remain committed to making frontier capabilities widely available.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 18:20:01 UTC · 原创原帖：Lots of interesting talk about Japan -- but always worth remembering just how many foreign assets Japan's Ministry of Finance carries on its balance sheet -- GPIF (end q2 data) has close to $1 trillion in unhedged foreign assets, and reserves also exceed $1 trillion 1/↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-08-18 18:16:48 UTC · 引用原帖：To be as 'underwhelming' as Acemoglu: a new bucket list. Slow news week, eh?↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-18 17:38:37 UTC · 原创原帖：Looking forward to joining @CNBCOvertime around 4:10pm ET this afternoon↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-08-18 17:27:07 UTC · 原创原帖：My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...↗ @sama · 请求账号 @sama · 2026-08-18 16:57:12 UTC · 引用原帖：excited to work together on this. thank you jensen!↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 16:37:50 UTC · 原创原帖：China's current economic malaise in a nutshell -- rising investment in manufacturing can no longer offset the fall in investment in real estate. The absolute level of investment in manufacturing is still absurdly high. But it is now shrinking not growing.↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-08-18 16:10:36 UTC · 原创原帖：I'm getting Vietnam flashbacks to the launch of OpenAi. Where with every model, it just keeps getting better... but now with hunanoids. Unitree has claimed that their humanoids: - Can now run faster than Usain Bolt. - Can now jump higher than any human. And with their IPO tomorrow, it seems like China is leading the hardware race.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 16:09:08 UTC · 引用原帖：1.5m EVs/ plug in hybrids exported in the last 3ms (6m annualized) v 1.25m ICE exports (5m annualized). Total car exports easily poised to top 10m this year (far more than forecast this time last year)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 15:57:52 UTC · 引用原帖：Have heard that this an issue for both Maersk and Hapag-lloyd; obviously true given the enormous gap between the "weight" of European imports from China and the "weight" of European exports. The big Airbuses of course fly themselves to China -- but China isn't buying that many of them↗ @LizAnnSonders · 请求账号 @LizAnnSonders · 2026-08-18 15:32:51 UTC · 原创原帖：July pending home sales -2.3% m/m vs. 0.0% est. & -4.8% prior (revised up from -5.4%) … index at lowest level since January↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-08-18 15:30:35 UTC · 引用原帖：For what it's worth, I just retuned from tonight's improvised collaboration by Cao Pu and Yang Haisong, and it was a really great show. Luckily, He Fan decided to record the whole thing, so we might release it as an album.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-08-18 14:42:12 UTC · 原创原帖：Just a reminder -- China's underlying trading surplus is still heading up. The rise this year has been obscured by a big surge in gold imports. Ex gold the surplus is now up $1 trillion/ 5 pp of Chinese GDP/ 1 pp of WGDP from its pre-pandemic levels↗

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