2026-07-30 每日信息简报

DAILY BRIEFING · 2026-07-30

AI 的规模化进入“资本、基础设施与控制面”三重考题

今日信号集中在同一条链路：大厂继续提高 AI 投入，产品从聊天走向可执行智能体，而电力、人力与安全控制开始成为同等重要的约束。

今日要点

微软利润增长与 AI 投入同步加速

《纽约时报》报道，微软在季度利润增长的同时继续提高 AI 支出，管理层正试图证明基础设施投入可以转化为收入。这不是“投入或回报”的二选一，而是回报兑现速度是否足以覆盖持续上升的算力、数据中心与折旧成本。对整个产业而言，云服务利用率和企业付费采用会比模型演示更能决定资本开支的可持续性。

Meta 的利润承压，个人智能体仍被押注

Meta 报告称，持续的 AI 投入令成本增速快于收入，利润同比下降 14%。与此同时，扎克伯格预计个人 AI 智能体将在未来五年覆盖数十亿人；这是一项公司管理层的预测，而非已发生的市场事实。两者放在一起看，平台正在用短期财务压力交换下一代个人计算入口的可能性。

数据中心扩张开始占用公共资源决策

《纽约时报》称，美国政府正考虑将联邦土地和一处旧铀浓缩设施转为数据中心园区及燃气电厂。AI 基础设施的约束由 GPU 供给扩展到选址、并网、燃料和社区影响；这些变量会直接影响训练与推理的真实成本。产业竞争因此不只发生在模型层，也发生在能源和许可的执行能力上。

AI 与科技

微软正把模型、工具链与产品入口同时内化

TechCrunch 指出，微软向资本市场展示自研模型、智能体执行框架以及更多自有产品能力，竞争姿态比以往更直接。对合作伙伴而言，关键变化不是某一个模型是否替代另一个，而是云、开发工具、分发入口和企业合同是否被同一家公司整合。多模型策略仍有价值，但迁移成本会越来越集中在数据、工作流与身份体系。

Copilot 被定位为横跨消费与商业场景的“超级应用”

The Verge 报道，微软确认计划在今年推出整合聊天、编程和智能体能力的 Copilot 应用。若落地，产品难点将从功能堆叠转向上下文管理、权限边界和结果可回滚性：一个应用越接近执行层，错误的外部性就越高。用户更应关注它能访问什么、如何征得授权、怎样留下操作记录。

安全事件把智能体能力评测推到产品前面

围绕 OpenAI 模型在受控网络安全测试中的表现，The Verge 强调不应再把 AI 安全当作边缘问题。能力评测、沙箱隔离、访问控制和事故披露需要共同构成上线门槛；其中任何一项缺失，都会让“可做什么”先于“能否安全做”。这也是企业部署代理时应优先建设的控制面。

值得深读

GPT-5.6 把效率指标延伸到推理与智能体工作流

OpenAI 将 GPT-5.6 的定位放在前沿能力与效率的结合，并把讨论扩展到模型、推理和智能体工作流。阅读时应把厂商指标与独立基准、具体任务成功率和单位任务总成本分开看；“每美元更有用”最终需要在可复现工作负载中验证。

科研软件现代化需要把智能体放进验证闭环

这份实地报告讨论研究者用编码智能体维护遗留科研软件、支持基因组学等任务。其真正价值不在自动生成更多代码，而在把领域专家审查、可复现运行与版本控制留在闭环中。科学计算里的错误代价较高，代理更适合扩大学者的迭代能力，而非替代验证责任。

Kimi K3-256k 为长上下文代码任务提供了新的可观察样本

Kimi Code 的模型页列出 K3-256k，提示长上下文与代码工作流仍是模型产品竞争的主要方向。公开规格不等于实际质量；比较时应同时看上下文利用率、工具调用稳定性、延迟、价格和私有仓库任务的成功率。把“支持 256k”理解为测试起点，比把它当作结论更稳妥。

快速浏览

BBC · 零售自动化中国机器人厂商正在进入英国零售业报道把劳动力短缺与低生产率视为服务机器人落地的背景；实际成效仍取决于运维与门店流程改造。↗ The Verge · 政策xAI 就明尼苏达反“去衣化”应用法提起诉讼生成式图像功能的产品边界正与州级监管直接相遇，后续争点将涉及平台责任与合规设计。↗ 纽约时报 · 人才AI 公司正在大量招聘电工和木工数据中心建设的瓶颈同样是现场技能工种；AI 投资会传导至传统职业培训和劳动力市场。↗ TechCrunch · 评测自动售货机实验暴露了代理目标设定的边界戏剧化实验可用于暴露目标错配，但不能代替真实环境中的安全评估与权限约束。↗ The Verge · 硬件OpenAI 称正在构建一系列 AI 设备硬件路线若要成立，必须解决输入方式、隐私与日常使用频率，而不只是把聊天能力移到新终端。↗ NVIDIA · 工程ModelExpress 讨论大模型制品分发模型文件的分发、版本与完整性验证会成为大规模部署的基础工程问题。↗ NVIDIA · 安全自托管代码助手的验证与护栏实践文章将模型护栏、验证和自托管结合，适合用来审视受监管场景中的代码助手部署方式。↗ 纽约时报 · 基建大量 AI 算力即将上线新增算力会带来能力提升，也会放大供电、利用率与商业化效率的重要性。↗ Hacker News · 本地模型开源引擎宣称可在 M 系列 Mac 的 2GB 内存运行 Gemma 4 26B值得用真实任务、量化精度与速度复核其资源主张；本地运行门槛的下降会扩大实验空间。↗ OpenAI · 评测两项设置变化提升 ARC-AGI-3 得分设置敏感性提醒我们：单一榜单成绩必须连同采样、提示和工具条件一起解读。↗ Hacker News · 智能体长篇策略文档未必能可靠约束智能体论文提出的反例值得团队将自然语言政策转换为可执行测试、权限和运行时检查。↗

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@Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-30 01:25:59 UTC · 引用Microsoft isn't alone here -- Eli Lilly also made more in Irish corporate tax than US corporate tax in 2025. Here is the key line from Lilly's 10-k ...↗ @sama · 请求账号 @sama · 2026-07-30 00:44:41 UTC · 引用so excited for this. very close to models that will significantly accelerate scientific discovery; the best way to do this is for us to empower scientists, not to try to figure out everything ourselves. we all deserve the benefits.↗ @sama · 请求账号 @sama · 2026-07-30 00:41:57 UTC · 引用goblin-level blog post↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-30 00:38:46 UTC · 引用Gold definitely mucked up the US trade data in 2025 (and to a lesser degree in 2026) Now it is playing with China's reported 2026 surplus. Fully agree "it's totally ok not to count gold" 1/2↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 23:54:58 UTC · 原创There’s no mention of LTAs in Samsung Electronics’ earnings presentation. That’s disappointing.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 23:51:57 UTC · 原创<Samsung Electronics 2Q26 Earnings Review> Revenue: KRW 171.5 trillion (+130.0% YoY, 1.7% below consensus) Operating profit: KRW 89.5 trillion (+1,813.8% YoY, 5.5% above consensus) Operating margin: 52.2% (+45.9ppt YoY, above expectations) Net income: KRW 71.3 trillion (+1,344.4% YoY, 1.8% above consensus)↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-29 23:13:55 UTC · 引用Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 22:49:36 UTC · 原创that just totally misrepresents standard thinking about BoP adjustment. the issue is the overall trade balance. if the income balance were 0.5 pp of GDP not what is reported and the commodity balance was ~ 4% of GDP deficit, and services 1% deficit getting to 0.5 would mean a manufacturing surplus of 5.5% of GDP -- a big fall v today. no one is suggesting that in equilibrum China would run a deficit in manufactures and export commodities so to speak↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-29 21:27:33 UTC · 原创$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 21:13:30 UTC · 原创Another measure of the China shock is China's raw trade surplus (a better measure than its BoP surplus imo) as a share of its GDP -- the surplus is now up to around 7% of GDP, only a bit below its 06-08 levels cc @adam_tooze↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 20:37:22 UTC · 原创Microsoft, per its 10K, paid more in tax in fiscal 2025 in Dublin (Ireland) than in DC ... Nice when a talking point checks out 1/↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-29 20:03:30 UTC · 原创To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 19:47:19 UTC · 原创Adam Tooze, as provocative and insightful as usual "What China is delivering in the 2020s is an industrial policy shock of global scale" 1/↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 19:11:44 UTC · 原创China was targeted by Lighthizer in Trump's first term -- and bore the brunt of the liberation day tariffs. But China has been the surprise winner of Trump's 2026 trade policy -- getting the same tariff as everyone else really help China, as the New York Times reports. 1/2↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-07-29 18:21:54 UTC · 原创The statement: a hold and three dissents—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan wanted a hike now. No rationale for the hold, no hint at what a hike would take. Not one word of the data discussion changed after six weeks of inflation and jobs surprises. None, zip, nada. Never seen that.↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-29 18:10:55 UTC · 原创Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 17:40:42 UTC · 引用a) the IMF's standard model suggests a 10% (inflation adjusted currency move) changes China's real exports by 1.5 pp of its GDP, which more or less is what happened after the 22/23 depreciation b) empirically, China's export growth clearly took off after the depreciation↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 17:25:14 UTC · 引用Some of this have argued that the exchange rate can and should be part of the initial ask -- and that there isn't a need for China to first adjust its domestic policy settings ... 1/2↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-29 17:07:41 UTC · 原创US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 17:06:13 UTC · 引用Good points from an important French voice -- Fully agree that China can/ does use the exchange rate as a policy tool (i.e. a macro-industrial policy that supports both exports and Chinese industrial policies)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 16:32:01 UTC · 引用Currency adjustment is indeed the classic solution to a large external surplus/ deficit Surprising to me that this is resisted so strongly right now↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-07-29 13:43:10 UTC · 引用The Fed decides today, and markets are unusually uncertain about what's coming. Hike odds were running near 30% yesterday. That's not normal; it's the second-most uncertain scheduled Fed meeting in 15 years. A short thread:↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 13:36:08 UTC · 原创1/4 WTO: "The rise in trade policy activity is not driven by the largest economies alone: the upward movement is broad-based, with non-G20 economies also rising markedly in the most recent period."↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 13:35:38 UTC · 引用KIS RAISES ITS PRICE TARGET FOR SK HYNIX BY 24% TO KRW 4.7 MILLION (TODAY’S CLOSING PRICE: KRW 1.41 MILLION).↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 13:23:04 UTC · 原创Finally, some welcome news. In a report published today, JPMorgan said that most leveraged ETFs in the Korean stock market have been liquidated and estimated that hedge funds’ deleveraging is also about 90% complete.↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-07-29 11:52:19 UTC · 引用Fed Day read 👇↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 10:35:45 UTC · 原创NYT: "One of the most surprising outcomes from a whiplash year of tariffs may be that China has emerged in a position of relative strength, with significantly lower tariffs than last year."↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 10:29:09 UTC · 原创1/3 Bloomberg: "Washington tightened curbs on some foreign-made robots and inverters, vital components of solar-powered electricity, in a sweeping move that risks widening its tech confrontation with Beijing."↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 09:05:42 UTC · 原创SCMP discusses an interesting question with a 200-year history: can a trade partnership in which one country exports manufacturing and the other commodities survive a desire of the latter to move up the value chain? This of course is not just an issue for Indonesia.↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:59:17 UTC · 原创Yicai: "Having a large export volume and a trade surplus does not mean that a country is experiencing a so-called overcapacity, according to the latest paper by China’s Ministry of Commerce." For those who don't want to read the full paper, here is Yicai's summary.↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:53:50 UTC · 原创People's Daily: "China welcomes a ruling made by the WTO which found Türkiye's restrictive measures on electric and certain other types of vehicles originating from China violate global trade rules, the Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday."↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 08:50:45 UTC · 原创South Korea’s Financial Services Commission chairman: We are considering restricting single-stock leveraged ETFs to professional investors.↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:42:20 UTC · 原创1/2 Xinua: "During the first six months of 2026, final consumption expenditure contributed more to economic growth than capital formation and net exports, underscoring the resilience of the country's mega market." It's true that consumption in China...↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:33:47 UTC · 原创Xinhua: "The total value of national social logistics grew 5.1 percent year on year (driven by a 5.4% increase in industrial goods logistics), outpacing GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points over the same period."↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:18:42 UTC · 引用Important point that mainstream economists still have trouble understanding. If ROW saves by purchasing US assets, the US must adjust with a higher fiscal deficit or it must adjust in some other way, most likely either in the form of higher household debt or in the form of an economic contraction with higher unemployment. Rather than try to force down the fiscal deficit, in other words, it would be far more effective (and intelligent) for the US to limit the ability of ROW to save by purchasing US assets.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 08:08:16 UTC · 引用I think my rebuttal will be titled "not a gimmick": why currency is the only effective mechanism for bringing China's surplus down↗ @michaelxpettis · 请求账号 @michaelxpettis · 2026-07-29 08:04:46 UTC · 引用In my latest substack piece I argue, against Gopinath, Gourinchas and Rey, that the relevant debate is not whether currency appreciation works, but rather which mechanism of income redistribution is politically, economically acceptable to China and – above all – which is the more practical trade policy China’s struggling trade partners can count on.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 07:22:44 UTC · 原创BNK Investment & Securities, the local Korean brokerage that foreshadowed the KOSPI’s decline by cutting its price target for SK hynix to KRW 1.85 million when the index was at 7,700, lowered its target again today to KRW 1.48 million. (In Korea, issuing an outright Sell report is virtually impossible, so a price-target cut effectively amounts to a Sell call.)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 07:17:00 UTC · 原创I know Grok isn't a frontier model, but this is the kind of thing that makes me skeptical AI is about to take my job it has two clear errors -- $735b is 3.7/3.8% of China's GDP, and the IMF's estimate of the undervaluation using the current account (linked to 3.3% of GDP by the way) was 16%↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 06:30:57 UTC · 引用It is the Odyssey of currency threads ...↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 04:43:19 UTC · 引用You might think a plunging stock market would be bad for Korea's currency -- but no, the contrary. Tis the craziest thing (a numerical fall means a stronger won, it takes fewer won to buy a dollar)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 04:32:19 UTC · 原创Remarkable fact. Take the trailing 12m sum of China's export and import volumes. There was no increase in China's imports from end 2021 to end 2025. Four years. Significant reported growth. No change in imports. 1/2↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 03:51:46 UTC · 原创A core part of my analytic disagreement with Gopinath, Gourinchas, &amp; Rey -- i would attribute a meaningful portion of the acceleration in China's exports (using a lagged and smoothed measure) that started in mid to late 2023 to the 22/ early 23 currency move 1/↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-29 01:08:36 UTC · 原创It doesn't really pop in this chart but export volume growth (average of y/y changes reported by China) in q2 was around 7% and import volume growth was back under 1% (q1 data distorted by slow adjustment for rising chip prices) 1/2↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 00:51:46 UTC · 原创From SK hynix’s 2Q Earnings Call Q&A Q. What is the status of HBM price negotiations for 2027? What is the pricing outlook and the status of contract discussions for HBM3, HBM4, and the upcoming HBM4E? A. We are currently discussing 2027 HBM supply volumes and pricing with our major customers. Negotiations are proceeding smoothly, supported by robust customer demand. However, we ask for your understanding that we cannot disclose individual customers’ contract terms or pricing details at this time. Given the recent sharp increase in conventional DRAM prices, these market conditions could also influence HBM price negotiations. However, HBM pricing is not determined solely by movements in conventional DRAM prices. Compared with conventional DRAM, HBM requires substantially greater resources, including more wafers, advanced process technologies, TSV, packaging, and production capacity. With each new generation, customers’ performance and quality requirements become more demanding, while the development and qualification processes grow increasingly complex. Accordingly, we negotiate prices individually with customers by comprehensively considering not only conventional DRAM pricing and supply-demand conditions, but also the resources required to produce HBM, opportunity costs, technological complexity, and the value our products provide to customers. Our focus is on securing an appropriate level of profitability commensurate with the differentiated value we provide to customers, while supporting the healthy and sustainable growth of the AI ecosystem. Building on our accumulated technological and cost competitiveness, stable mass-production capabilities, strong customer trust, and close collaboration, we will maintain solid profitability in our HBM business. Through product transitions and greater customer value creation, we aim to establish ourselves as a key partner capable of growing alongside our customers in the AI era. Ultimately, we will continue to pursue sustainable long-term growth.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-29 00:35:37 UTC · 引用Samsung Electro-Mechanics to Raise MLCC Prices by 30% Starting August 1.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 23:36:14 UTC · 引用I don't doubt that China has invested heavily in modern manufacturing and moved up the value chain. That tho raises the question of why China needs the additional export boost from an undervalued yuan↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-28 23:09:25 UTC · 原创There’s a reason for the saying that, when it comes to memory semiconductors, you shouldn’t trust anyone but Korean analysts, lol. KIS is a veteran in this field. Not only KIS, but veteran analysts at Citi, Meritz, and elsewhere all lowered their earnings estimates for SK hynix.↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-07-28 23:08:20 UTC · 原创Everyone is watching what Warsh says at 2:30 tomorrow. Watch what the committee says at 2:00. The FOMC statement is where compromises get forged. I mocked up one I think they could agree to, redlined from June. Full post in the first reply.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-28 23:02:42 UTC · 原创Samsung Electro-Mechanics to Raise MLCC Prices - Samsung Electro-Mechanics has sent customers a notice announcing that it plans to raise prices for certain MLCC products by 30% from August 1, 2026. - The company explained that structural growth in global electronics demand has placed pressure on the supply chain beyond what it can absorb internally. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics said that although it has continued to improve manufacturing efficiency and expand capacity, price adjustments for certain products have become unavoidable to maintain product quality and a stable supply. - The price increase will apply to all MLCC products under Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ Markup Business Code, with the new prices taking effect for shipments made on or after August 1, 2026. - The company emphasized that the price adjustment is unavoidable and said it will continue to supply high-quality products and support its customers’ businesses. - Taiyo Yuden is also moving to raise MLCC prices from September 1, while noting that it may be unable to guarantee customers’ requested delivery schedules. - Taiyo Yuden explained that it decided to adjust prices because ongoing increases in raw-material costs could no longer be absorbed through cost-cutting efforts alone. - Even after the price adjustment, supply is expected to remain insufficient to fully meet demand, and the company may still be unable to guarantee on-time delivery.↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-28 22:57:58 UTC · 原创Net Profit 93.92T!($64.59B)↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-28 22:50:51 UTC · 原创SK hynix: Long-term contracts with approximately 10 major customers↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 22:50:26 UTC · 引用Also a dated point from the authors' of the Economist piece. Settlement is the best indicator of true intervention, and China has been a net buyer of fx over the last year↗ @jukan05 · 请求账号 @jukan05 · 2026-07-28 22:49:37 UTC · 原创SK hynix (Market Cap: KRW 1,132.2632 trillion) 2Q26 Earnings Results ▶️ Results: Revenue: KRW 79 trillion (+257% YoY) (Consensus: KRW 84 trillion; 5.5% below consensus) Operating profit: KRW 61 trillion (+557% YoY) (Consensus OP: KRW 64 trillion; 5.4% below consensus) Operating margin: 76.3% (Consensus OPM: 76.2%; 0.1%p above consensus)↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 22:47:02 UTC · 引用But a stronger yuan also won't add much to China's deflationary pressures, and it would address the rest of the world's concern that China is getting too much growth from net exports ...↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 22:30:06 UTC · 引用One additional observation -- with a current account surplus reported to be about 3 pp higher than the IMF's norm (4 pp v 1 pp, give or take), the IMF's models imply the RMB is undervalued by 20%. That is a big gap to be resolved by swings in inflation differentials!↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-28 22:25:27 UTC · 引用I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 21:31:56 UTC · 原创It isn't every day that the last two chief economists of the IMF join forces to push back against one of your arguments! The debate over the role of China's currency in the increase in China's surplus is an important one, and I am happy to have this debate in the open 1/↗ @AndrewYNg · 请求账号 @AndrewYNg · 2026-07-28 20:19:41 UTC · 原创Fifteen years ago, @Coursera and online courses changed education. It worked better than almost anyone expected, expanding access by opening up where you can learn. But how you learn remains largely the same as it has for centuries: it is still one-size-fits-all, taught the same way to each person who shows up. We now have an opportunity to change how learning happens. With advances in AI, we can now build a custom learning guide for each person. We will turn learning from one‑to‑many to one‑to‑one. I'm starting LearnVector to invent this next generation of learning. We are starting with a $100M investment from Coursera, and plan to collaborate closely with Coursera and Udemy. Good learning needs much more than just a chatbot. Research shows that chatbots without guardrails harm learning. They help complete tasks and enable students to do better on homework. But cognitive offloading to a chatbot results in them being less skilled. And, you cannot always trust what a chatbot tells you. In contrast, LearnVector will plan a path with you, adapt to how you learn, and patiently stay with you until you’ve mastered new skills. One thing has not changed in all this time. People want learning they can trust: material that is accurate, relevant, and worth the effort you put into it. Anything less wastes the most valuable thing a learner has: time. Coursera has a trusted library of materials from authoritative sources. LearnVector plans to work with Coursera to bring this trustworthy learning to everyone. I'm grateful to Greg Hart and the entire Coursera team for supporting LearnVector. I look forward to working with our talented team to change how we learn, and accelerate human development.↗ @Claudia_Sahm · 请求账号 @Claudia_Sahm · 2026-07-28 19:45:48 UTC · 引用Re-upping my question for the Fed presser tomorrow: "2% of What?" I would like to know whether Warsh agrees that PCE inflation is the Fed's target.↗ @aleabitoreddit · 请求账号 @aleabitoreddit · 2026-07-28 18:45:19 UTC · 原创FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this.↗ @realDonaldTrump · 请求账号 @realDonaldTrump · 2026-07-28 17:42:14 UTC · 引用We’re going to bring this heroic young man, and his family, into the White House with, perhaps, the boy he saved, to give him a High Civilian Honor. Very brave, he deserves it! President DONALD J. TRUMP↗ @Brad_Setser · 请求账号 @Brad_Setser · 2026-07-28 15:31:35 UTC · 引用Good The EU (i.e. Commission) should be doing this as well. Now that China has weaponized rare earth/ magnet supplies, the ability to counter retaliate is critical for any real form of autonomy↗

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